Fluvius adjusts investment plan due to stronger electrification at companies
For the first time, also data management plan for digitisation of energy market
Fluvius has presented the latest, biennial version of its Investment Plan. In it, the grid operator sets out the investments needed in the Flemish distribution networks over the next 10 years, as a result of the energy transition. Especially the strengthening of mid-voltage networks (to which many companies are connected) requires an acceleration in the coming years. And digitisation is also crucial: Fluvius foresees a new data management plan over the next decade with 40 initiatives that will benefit both customers and the entire energy market.
The Investment Plan is a biennial document in which Fluvius looks ten years ahead in terms of investments. The plan is drawn up at the request of the Flemish Utility Regulator. This is the third edition of a ten-year Investment Plan. In the first version from 2022, the grid operator proposed a 'no regret' investment plan to prepare the Flemish electricity grids for massive numbers of electric cars, heat pumps, solar panels and new needs from industry. That plan is on track: between 2022 and 2024, 6,500 kilometres of new low-voltage grid and 2,400 kilometres of new mid-voltage grid have already been constructed. 3,325 distribution cabins have also been renewed or newly installed. Fluvius is now updating the 'no regret' plan for the period 2026-2035, based on new insights and expectations.
Number of electric cars and heat pumps expected in 2035 lower, industry electrifying faster
When preparing each new version of the Investment Plan, Fluvius consults with sector federations and government bodies to determine together the expected evolutions of technologies with an impact on electricity and gas grids.
Here are the main changes compared to two years ago.
- By 2030, we expect 1.6 instead of 1.5 million electric passenger cars in Flanders due to the accelerated conversion in the leasing market. Towards 2035, expectations were revised downwards from 2.75 million to 2.45 million, as a slower breakthrough of electric vehicles in the private market is expected. The simultaneity of charging was revised to 45 per cent: we assume that no more than 45 per cent of all electric cars will be charged at the same time.
- The switch to heat pumps in homes is likely to progress a lot slower than expected. Fluvius takes into account 611,000 electric heat pumps in Flanders by 2035, of which more than 400,000 in new-build homes. At 1 per cent per year, the renovation rate of Flemish homes remains low. Moreover, from now on renovations may be spread over six years (instead of five) and the minimum energy label to be achieved is now EPC-D instead of EPC-A. The Fleming is therefore likely to be less quick and/or less radical in renovations, making the switch to a heat pump difficult in many situations.
- For companies, a higher peak load on the electricity grids is expected, partly due to the switch from fossil energy to electricity for industrial production processes (e.g.: e-boilers). To correctly estimate the impact of this switch, Fluvius and Elia conducted a study using available data from 5,500 Flemish companies with high gas or gasoil consumption. These results allowed them to calculate the impact on the grids in detail. In order to be able to know even better and faster where companies will electrify in the future, Fluvius, Elia and Fluxys have launched the energyGRIP project.
- New technologies, such as cloud and AI, mean that data centres need more power capacity, which has an impact on the level of 'interconnection points' between the distribution and transmission grid, and on the transmission grid itself.
Enhanced simulations
All expected social developments have a joint impact on power grids. When calculating all assumptions for the Investment Plan 2026-2035, Fluvius was for the first time able to make large-scale use of data from digital meters, but also of information from local authorities about the public domain. Through an improved, controlled 'scattering technique', simulations of e-cars, solar panels, heat pumps and wind turbines, among others, could be applied much more finely to the current distribution network. This provides improved impact scenarios.
Investments: shift from low-voltage and cabins to mid-voltage
The adapted assumptions with their corresponding impact on the electricity distribution network result in a slight adjustment of the already known Investment Plan for the period up to 2032, based on the so-called 'no regret' scenario.
At the end of the period 2023-2032, Fluvius still foresees to remain in line with the EUR 4 billion additional investments in the electricity networks for the sake of energy transition, but shifts part of the resources from 2026 onwards:
- The budget for low-voltage and distribution cabins can be reduced by EUR 200 million. In the Fluvius plan, 30,000 kilometres of low-voltage grid and 18,000 distribution cabins need to be reinforced or renewed to avoid running into trouble in the coming years. The previous plan still assumed 22,000 cabins.
- Fluvius is increasing the mid-voltage budget by EUR 200 million by 2032. This will allow to strengthen or renew 7,500 kilometres (or 15%) of cables. The previous plan still assumed 5500 kilometres of mid-voltage network to be reinforced. The increase is due to the expected increased electrification in industry.
In the period 2033 to 2035, the investment rate may decrease based on current assumptions.
For the gas distribution network , a 'keep it running' scenario already applies since 2023, where investments are only planned for the safe and qualitative operation of the existing distribution network. Annual, regular investments continue to fall towards EUR 60 million per year in 2035. In the previous plan, this was still EUR 63 million per year in 2033. However, with an unchanged policy, replacement of the first generation of digital gas meters is imminent from 2034, which will require another investment.
Both the Flemish government and the Flemish Utility Regulator are planning initiatives to reflect on the future of the Flemish gas grid. Fluvius will fully cooperate with those initiatives.
Raf Bellers, director of grid management at Fluvius: "The Investment Plan is an important document for our company. The plan gives direction to our trajectory for the energy transition, and keeps us on our toes. Thanks to increasingly better input from social stakeholders and more efficient simulation methods, we were able to optimise the calculations for this edition. This led to new insights around the impact of both households and businesses on the electricity grid."
Data management plan: energy data crucial
From this year, the Investment Plan goes hand in hand with a fully-fledged Data Management Plan. In it, Fluvius, as a neutral data manager for the energy market, must indicate what investments in data systems are needed over the next 10 years. After all, Europe talks about a 'twin transition': the transition to a sustainable society - including through the energy transition - cannot happen without a solid digital transition. Energy data services help customers save, facilitate the use of renewable energy and contribute to an efficient energy system.
To be precise, Fluvius sees major changes and different expectations in the energy market in the coming years. Both system operators (e.g. Elia and Fluvius) and all market players (e.g. suppliers, producers, energy service providers, ...) as well as active customers are asking for new ways to work with energy data from the digital meter. As a result, the amount of data will increase enormously in the short term. Data will also have to be made available faster and easier. Thanks to artificial intelligence, Fluvius will be able to make better-founded analyses with these data. Finally, the energy market of the future must remain stable and robust, even with the many additional data interactions.
Fluvius plans to invest around EUR 30 million a year over the next decade in the foundations of its data systems, further unlocking energy data and facilitating the energy market. A total of 40 initiatives are currently envisaged to further support the digital transformation of the energy landscape.
Some key initiatives
- From 2026, quarterly values for electricity will become the standard in just about all market and customer processes. Quarterly values leverage opportunities for more energy-conscious and active behaviour.
- From 2026, two-way communication with the digital meter will become possible. For now, the meter can only send signals (e.g. meter readings). In the future, it should also be able to easily receive data, which could be useful when moving house or limiting power purchases in case of an invalid or missing energy contract. It contributes to simplification within market operations.
- From 2026 and in subsequent years, the platforms facilitating the rollout of flexibility services on the distribution network will be further developed. These should be ready in time for larger volumes.
- From 2027, data from so-called 'third parties' (e.g. metering data from charging stations) can be made available via Fluvius after consent.
- By 2028, 'supply split' should be technically feasible. Then you can request a second electricity contract on the same connection, which is interesting for users of electric cars, for example. They can then take out a separate contract on the same digital meter with more favourable conditions for charging their vehicle. At this moment, this still requires a separate, additional meter.
- Beyond 2029, Fluvius plans integrated and connected data platforms instead of separate systems today. In doing so, data can be shared even faster and easier within the energy market. Fluvius aims to achieve near real-time data exchange and complete data ecosystems.
Guy Cosyns, director of data management and customer services at Fluvius: "No energy transition without a digital transition. The data from the ever-increasing number of digital meters are crucial in tomorrow's energy system. Fluvius wants to invest fully in data services that support and activate both the market and the customer, and that keep grid management affordable for society."
Concerns about long-term sustainable financing
With the new Investment Plan and Data Management Plan, Fluvius again wants to assume its social responsibility. However, the grid operator is concerned about the long-term financial viability of the necessary investments:
Frank Vanbrabant, CEO Fluvius: "It is important that the distribution networks - as 'lifelines' for our households, companies and public authorities - remain as qualitative and reliable in tomorrow's world too. And that we keep the energy system activated and affordable via the right data services. That's what we want to go for. Yet we at Fluvius are also concerned: in our view, the regulator's current tariff methodology does not provide sufficient financial resources. We think it is crucial to look at sustainable long-term financing of Fluvius and the necessary investments. We wish to continue the conversation on this."
The full Investment and Data Management Plan is available at www.fluvius.be/investeringsplan and www.fluvius.be/databeheersplan
Both plans will be publicly consulted between 10 June and 23 July. After incorporating the comments, Fluvius will submit the plans to the Flemish Utility Regulator for approval by 1 October 2025.
